Insight

Are the exurbs dead?

You’d think so, based on all the publicity about plummeting home prices in California – and the rapidly increasing price of gasoline. In the short run, it is probably true that we’ll see big housing price drops in the exurbs and construction will stop almost completely.
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What’s the next big thing?

The last big thing was housing, and it’s over. So what’s next?

We may be in a real estate slump, but as California communities and planners begin mapping out their futures, it is not too early to start thinking about what the next big thing will be in the world of real estate development.

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I hate to be repetitious, but sometimes in the column-writing business it’s inevitable.

Eighteen months ago, I wrote that the debate over Proposition 90 came down to two unfortunately simpleminded campaign slogans – “protect our homes” or “taxpayer trap.” The latter won, but not by much. So now we’ve got Proposition 98 on the June ballot – a watered-down and slightly sideways version of Proposition 90. And for good measure we’ve got Proposition 99 – a countermeasure put forth by local government organizations that would restrict eminent domain, but only in the case of owner-occupied single-family homes.

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The feds influence planning and development in California only indirectly. Environmental regulation such as the Endangered Species Act and the way money is spent, especially on transportation, help shape the landscape.

It has been a long time since that influence has changed. But in the next 12 months, two federal bills are likely to chart the federal course for the next decade or longer. » read more | add to cart

Is Gov. Schwarzenegger's “Strategic Growth Council” simply the latest in a decades-long string of gubernatorial efforts to make it look like they’re dealing with growth? Or can Schwarzenegger actually take coherent action on growth by appointing a Cabinet-level council devoted to the issue?

It’s probably a little bit of both. » read more | add to cart

When you’ve got a $14 billion deficit, everybody’s ox is going to get gored. So the question for the planning and development community in California is not really whether something bad is going to happen. The question is whether it matters very much. » read more | add to cart

Has climate change lit a fire under California's professional planners, and if so, how much impact will they have on the climate change debate?

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Call it the Year of the Election.

Every time you turn around during 2008, Californians are going to be voting on something. February. June. November. And, on the local level, probably some dates in between.

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Should planning departments in California force developers to steer clear of fire-prone areas? Or should building departments force developers to fireproof their neighborhoods instead? » read more | add to cart

It’s undeniable: California is in the worst housing bust since the early 1990s. Sales have dropped by a third compared with last year. Prices are stable for now, but nobody knows what will happen once all those bank repos hit the market. And it’s pretty clear that developers all over the state are sitting on their entitlements. Nobody’s building anything unless they absolutely have to. » read more | add to cart