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Supervisors Amend San Francisco's "Family Zoning"; Plan May Produce Far Less Housing than Intended
San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie's proposed "Family Zoning," intended to meet state housing mandates by allowing taller, denser construction in the city's north and west sides, has sparked debate and a number of last-minute amendments from the Board of Supervisors. The plan aims to add up to 36,000 homes, although a new analysis projects that the number would likely be half that by 2045 due to high construction costs and a weak market. Supervisors have enacted measures to protect rent-controlled tenants, exempt historic buildings, and ensure that development on public lands is 100% affordable, while offering incentives for family-sized units and small businesses. According to a recent analysis by the City Controller's office, the plan, despite upzoning 92,000 parcels, is likely to produce at most 14,646 actual new units in the plan area. The discrepancy between the city's goal and the controller's estimate stems from the controller's economic analysis, which considers projects that are likely to pencil out for developers, based in part on an 8% increase in construction costs and 25% decrease in sale prices for condos since 2019 (adjusted for inflation).
Study Finds Exorbitant Housing Development Costs in California
A report out of RAND compares the cost of building market-rate and subsidized affordable apartments across California, Colorado and Texas, using data from over 140 projects and found that California has the highest production costs in every category, largely due to longer development timelines, higher fees and strict design and labor requirements. Notably, multifamily housing in California can cost more than twice as much per square foot as in Texas, with wide variation even within the state. The findings suggest that reducing delays, streamlining permitting and inspections and revising fee structures could significantly lower costs and boost housing supply. If California matched the efficiency and cost levels of states like Texas or Colorado, it could produce far more affordable housing with the same public investment.
Los Angeles County Lost Half-Million Residents since 2015
Neighborhood Data for Social Change at USC Lusk Center for Real Estate released its State of Los Angeles County Housing and Neighborhoods (SOLACHAN) report, presenting detailed data on the region's housing, demographics and affordability. The report found that, since 2015, LA County's population has decreased by over 500,000 people, including a loss of 280,000 foreign-born residents, despite the number of households continuing to increase. The report found that housing production has fallen from over 70,000 new units per year in the 1950s to fewer than 15,000 per year in the 2010s, with only 10% of recent rental units affordable to lower-income households while permitting timelines triple the national average. Homeownership has also dropped to 45% of residents, its lowest level in more than 50 years, with Black and middle-income households seeing the largest declines. The report found over 90% of renters earning under $50,000 spend more than 30% of their income on housing. Despite a 57% increase in permanent housing beds for unhoused residents, and the number of unsheltered residents dropping 15% in two years, 66% of people experiencing homelessness in the county remain unsheltered, the largest percentage in the country.
Report Blames Slow Transit Development on Permitting & Regulations
The nonprofit Circulate San Diego released a report titled "Powerless Brokers: Why California Can't Build Transit", addressing why public transit construction in California is typically very slow and expensive. The report finds permitting and regulation challenges to be the primary culprit: transit authorities do not have the power to construct projects approved by elected officials or ballot measures, and must seek third-party permits from local governments, special districts, state agencies, and public and private utilities. The Powerless Brokers recommends reassigning permitting responsibilities from third parties to the transit authorities, incentivizing local governments to prioritize transit and streamline permitting, extend CEQA exemptions for sustainable transit, and encourage more leadership from Caltrans.
CP&DR Coverage: Newsom Signs over 40 Land Use Bills
Although SB 79 and the big infill housing exemption from the California Environmental Quality Act got all the headlines this year, the Legislature was active on a variety of planning and development bills this, with Gov. Gavin Newsom signing more than 40 bills into law. Unlike last year, Newsom vetoed no bills on CP&DR’s list. As usual, most of the bills had to do with housing. But the new legislation includes reforms to laws related to accessory dwelling units, general plan law, and the Regional Housing Needs Assessment reporting process, as well as a cleanup bill to last year’s controversial warehouse bill. Highlights include SB 79, overrides local zoning to require midrise housing near major transit stations; AB 130 and SB 131 major infill housing and other CEQA exemptions; SB 786 prioritizes housing elements over other general plan elements, while AB 39 requires decarbonization or electrification plans in larger cities, and more.
Quick Hits & Updates
The San Diego Planning Commission endorsed an update to the College Area Community Plan, last updated in 1989, which would keep most of the area zone for single families while allowing medium- to high-density hosuing adjacent to SDSU and along major arteries like College Avenue, Montezuma Road, and El Cajon Boulevard. The plan would also add protected bike lanes and bus-only lanes. Critics of the plan raised concerns that the area has insufficient parks, fire stations, parking, and other infrastructure to support a substantial population increase.
Pasadena City Council revealed two competing concepts for the future of the stub, "Gardens and Terraces" and "Boulevard and Plaza" for the unfinished stub of the 710 Freeway. The stub was relinquished to Pasadena by the state in 2022 after sitting abandoned for nearly fifty years. Both plans call for two-way streets, parks, bike paths, and new housing to revive the area. The Council also heard testimonies from families displaced when construction on the project started in the 1960s and 70s, destroying predominantly African American and Latino neighborhoods.
According to a recent audit by the California State Auditor, UC, CSU, and California Community College systems have not done enough to ensure access to affordable housing. The report recommends clarifying state law to assign system offices (Presidents and Chancellors) greater oversight and responsibility for planning campus housing and requiring system offices to biennially assess unmet housing demand on campuses.
California's High Speed Rail Authority filed for preliminary injunction against the U.S. Department of Transportation's transfer of $4 billion in grants frozen by Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, alleging that the department unlawfully revoked the money despite the project passing compliance reviews. California Attourney General Rob Bonta wrote that Trump officials were attempting to transfer much of the funds to other projects before the case could be decided.
Housing Trust Silicon Valley launched its Building Impact Initiative, a landmark $200 million fund designed to accelerate affordable housing across the Bay Area. Tech giant Apple contributed a substantial but undisclosed sum to the fund.
A poll from Bay Area regional think tank Bay Area News Group and Joint Venture Silicon Valley suggests in-person work is rebounding, while still below pre-pandemic levels. 63% of Bay Area respondents reported working fully in person, up from less than half of respondents last year, and just 9% reported working fully remotely. The CEO of the think tank called the results "surprising", but pointed to companies wanting to reinforce culture and productivity as reasons for calling people back to the office.
The Redlands Planning Commission voted 5-1 to recommend to the City Council a citywide ban on new warehouse development. The Commission cited concerns about the extensive development of warehouses on already developed sites and ensuring diverse land use. Redlands has seen 28 million square feet of warehouse development in the past quarter century, vastly outstripping every other type of development.
Irvine and San Francisco ranked second and seventh, respectively, in safest cities for cyclists in the new Pedestrian & Cyclist Safety Report, which analyzed nearly 300 U.S. cities with populations over 100,000. The report praised Irvine's extensive use of separated bike paths and protected crossings to allow cyclists to go nearly anywhere without entering high-speed traffic, and noted San Francisco's use of slow streets and car-free corridors. The report emphasized that pedestrian and cyclist safety is the result of policy and planning, not luck or statistical variance.
The US Senate passed the ROAD to Housing Act, a bipartisan bill that seeks to tackle the nation's housing crisis through a wide range of provisions that reduce red tape, incentivize housing construction, and streamline federal review procedures. The bill's sponsors, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Tim Scott, hailed the bill as landmark legislation to combat housing shortages.
